SCHOOL OF GRADUATE STUDIES AND RESEARCH, GHANA INSTITUTE OF JOURNALISM EXPLORING FACTORS THAT INFLUENCE GHANAIANS PARLIAMENTARY VOTER CHOICE AND BEHAVIOR IN GHANA: A CASE OF ELECTORATES IN THE KLOTTEY KORLE CONSTITUENCY IN THE 2016 PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS ISAAC MICHAEL SAITEY OLOGO MAMM19009 A LONG ESSAY SUBMITTED TO THE GRADUATE SCHOOL, GHANA INSTITUTE OF JOURNALISM, IN PARTIAL FULFILMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE AWARD OF MASTER OF ARTS (M.A) DEGREE IN MEDIA MANAGEMENT ©OCTOBER 2020 CANDIDATE’S DECLARATION I hereby declare that this dissertation is the result of my original research, and that no part of it has been presented for another (degree or diploma) in this institute or elsewhere. I am responsible for any shortcomings. 30/09/20 ISAAC MICHAEL SAITEY OLOGO MAMM19009 i SUPERVISOR’S CERTIFICATION I hereby declare that the preparation of this dissertation was supervised by me in accordance with the guidelines of supervision of dissertation laid down by Ghana Institute of Journalism. September 30, 2020 Dr Collins Adu -Bempah Brobbey Date (Supervisor) ii DEDICATION I dedicate this book to God Almighty, to my dear parents and family who supported me financially and in prayer, to my dear supervisor who worked tirelessly to support and correct this work, and finally to all friends who helped me in one way or the other, I am are most grateful. iii ACKNOWLEDGEMENT I am grateful to God because He brought me this far on this project and with Him all things have been possible. This dissertation owes its success to a number of people, who in diverse ways contributed towards its completion. First, to my supervisor Dr Collins Adu- Bempah Brobbey, the Acting Dean of School of Graduate Studies and Research, a Visiting Assistant Professor, United Nations University for Peace, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, and a Senior lecturer, Ghana Institute of Journalism and Adjunct Senior Lecturer Institute of African Studies, University of Ghana, Legon. God richly bless you for taking time off your busy schedule to access and address all my shortcomings and the patience you displayed in order to make this project work an exceptional one. Your constructive criticisms and input and selfless attention have gone a long way to shape this work. iv TABLE OF CONTENTS CANDIDATE’S DECLARATION ............................................................................................... i SUPERVISOR’S CERTIFICATION ......................................................................................... ii DEDICATION.............................................................................................................................. iii ACKNOWLEDGEMENT........................................................................................................... iv CHAPTER 1 .................................................................................................................................. 1 GENERAL OVERVIEW AND BACKGROUND TO THE STUDY................................... 1 1.0 Introduction ......................................................................................................................... 1 1.2 Statement of Problem.......................................................................................................... 3 1.3 Research Questions. ............................................................................................................ 4 1.4 Research Objective.............................................................................................................. 4 1.6 Scope of the Study ............................................................................................................... 5 1.7 Significance of the Study .................................................................................................... 5 1.8 Chaptarization of the Study ............................................................................................... 5 CHAPTER 2 .............................................................................................................................. 6 LITERATURE REVIEW......................................................................................................... 6 2.0 Introduction ......................................................................................................................... 6 2.1.0 Theoretical Foundation ................................................................................................... 6 2.1.1 The Public Choice Theory and Voter Choice:............................................................... 6 2.1.2. Factors that affect Voter Choice and the three models of Voting Behaviour............ 8 2.1.3 The Sociological Model. ................................................................................................... 9 2.1.4 The Psychological Model ............................................................................................... 12 v 2.1.5. Rational Choice Model.................................................................................................. 15 2.2.1. Parliament of Ghana ..................................................................................................... 17 2.2.2. Klottey Korle Constituency Elections ......................................................................... 19 2.2.3. Voter Choice and Voter Behaviour ............................................................................. 21 CHAPTER 3 ............................................................................................................................ 25 METHODOLOGY.................................................................................................................. 25 3.1 Methods .............................................................................................................................. 25 3.2 Research Process ............................................................................................................... 27 3.2.1 Research Philosophy................................................................................................... 27 3.3 Interview Schedules........................................................................................................... 27 3.4 Data analysis and presentation ........................................................................................ 28 3.5. Ethical Consideration ...................................................................................................... 29 3.6 Limitations ......................................................................................................................... 29 CHAPTER 4 ................................................................................................................................ 30 4.1. Discussions and Reflection .................................................................................................. 30 4.2. Conclusion ............................................................................................................................ 31 CHAPTER 5 ............................................................................................................................ 32 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS ................................................................ 32 5.0 Conclusions ........................................................................................................................ 32 5.1 Recommendations ............................................................................................................. 32 BIBLIOGRAPHY ................................................................................................................... 33 vi CPP-Convention People’s Party ACRONYMS EGLE-Every Ghanaian Living Everywhere IEA- Institute of Economic Affairs MP-Member of Parliament NCP-National Convention Party NDC-National Democratic Congress NPP-New Patriotic Party PNC-People’s National Convention US-United States vii ABSTRACT Elections are held to appoint people into office. However, the outcomes of these elections need to be determined. This study examined the factors that influence the voter’s behavior and choice in an election specifically in the Klottey Korle Constituency. This study also made use of peer reviewed articles and with the help of the purposive sampling technique, selected empirical literatures to help research the factors that influence these voter choices and behaviors. Previous research by scholars and existing empirical literature show that there are factors that determine the voter’s choice on elections in America; however, studies on elections in third world areas are scanty of which Ghana is no exception. Studies of elections in Ghana, include one on voter behavior in perspective and other explored the public perceptions of members of parliament. The overall objective of the study was to get the views on how the roles and responsibilities of Members of Parliament (MPs) were perceived by Ghanaians with individuals aged 18 years and above selected in three (3) stages from across the then 10 regions of the country. Findings revealed that voter’s choice is influenced more factors than is originally perceived. It concludes that voter’s choice is informed by sociological, psychological and economic factors. It recommends that members of Parliament should consider all these factors and endeavour to explore further beyond what has already been documented. Keywords: Voter’s choice or decision; elections; behaviour; Klottey Korle Constituency; Electorates; sociological; psychological; economical viii CHAPTER 1 GENERAL OVERVIEW AND BACKGROUND TO THE STUDY 1.0 Introduction In 1992, Ghana embarked on a journey of democracy and has since made major progress. Yet, important questions concerning voter alignment such as the influence of ethnicity on voter alignment remain unexplored and unanswered. Nevertheless, there exists a perception that ethnic undercurrents play a major role in Ghana’s Fourth Republic (Peter Arthur (2009). Alvarez, and Nagler (1995) argue that theories of presidential elections (economic voting and spatial issue and ideology models) combined with the popular explanation of angry voting accounted for voter choice in the 1992 American presidential elections. Voter choice in this three candidate race is a function of economic perceptions, issue and ideological positions of voters and candidates or voter anger. The two scholars further argued that the economy was the dominant factor in accounting for voter decisions in the 1992 American elections. While certain issues (mainly abortion) and ideology did some subsidiary role. Moreover, Tomz and Van Houweling (2008) assert that the policy positions of candidates correlate well with the choices of voters. In their study, they suggested three criteria namely proximity, direction and discounting by which voters might judge candidates’ policy positions. There are several models of voter decision making; however, three influential factors (personal identity, personal ethics, and personal benefit) in the decision-making process have received little scholarly attention. These factors are examined to underscore their importance to voters when making a selection for a leader (Levine, 2005). 1 A voter is one who has a legal right to vote in an election. Elections have been held every four years in Ghana since 1992. Presidential and Parliamentary elections are organized on December 7 every four years. While Presidential elections are organized to elect presidents to rule and govern the nation here in Ghana, Parliamentary elections are held to elect one member from each constituency to represent the interest of their constituents in parliament. These representatives are referred to as parliamentarians or members of parliament. In Ghana, there are three arms of government. The Executive, the Legislature and the Judiciary. Parliamentarians form part of the legislature. Law-making is considered to be the most important function of Parliament. Under article 93(2) of the 1992 constitution, the legislative power of Ghana is vested in Parliament and is exercised in accordance with the Constitution. No person or body other than Parliament has the power to pass any measure with the force of law except by or under the authority conferred by an Act of Parliament. The legislative function largely consists of passing Bills, amending existing laws, and repealing laws. In order to perform these functions, bills, instruments and statutes laid before Parliament are carefully scrutinized and considered before decisions are made. The functions of parliament are not only limited to these. Chapter Thirteen of the 1992 Constitution variously, vests the control of all public funds thus power of the public purse in Parliament. Specifically, this means; No tax can be imposed without the authority of Parliament (Art. 174), Apart from moneys charged directly on the Consolidated Fund by the Constitution, no moneys can be withdrawn from the Fund without the authority of Parliament (Art. 178). Parliament has the power and duty to supervise the expenditure of public funds to ensure that monies it has authorized are used for their intended purposes by taking appropriate action on the Auditor-General’s Reports. Other functions include authorizing the granting or receiving of loans (Art. 181), monitoring the country’s foreign 2 exchange receipts and payments or transfers (article 184) and authorizing the waiver/exemption or variation of taxes (Art. 174) just to mention a few. 1.2 Statement of Problem. Prior research by scholars and existing empirical literature show that there are factors that determine the voter’s choice in the United States. Although there has been an abundance of studies on elections in the United States and other parts of the world, there is little of such research here in Ghana. Studies in Ghana by Brobbey (2009) on voter’s behavior in perspective and the Institute of Economic Affairs (IEA) in 2015 explored the public’s perception of members of parliament. The overall objective of the study was to the views on how the roles and responsibilities of Members of Parliament (MPs) were perceived by Ghanaians. With a sample size of 1,500 and an age range of 18 years and above, persons were selected in three (3) stages from across the then 10 regions of the country. The findings of this study show that about 77% of respondents know their MPs. Females and urban dwellers are less likely to know their MPs; about a third of respondents in the Greater Accra Region and the Ashanti Region did not know their MPs. However, over 80% of respondents had never contacted their MPs. For respondents who had contacted their MPs, almost half (47.4%) did so to discuss development projects in their constituencies, while 24.4% sought financial assistance. Less than 10% contacted their MPs to discuss proposed or enacted legislation. In a study of parliamentary elections in Europe, Kedar (2005) found that voters recognize the institutional constraints on power and take those constraints into account when deciding who to support. Tomz and Houweling (2008) pointed to the fact that a related form of sophisticated reasoning thus many voters consider the location of the status quo when deciding which candidate to support. 3 Here in Ghana, the focus on voter’s research has mostly been on the voter’s decision for a presidential candidate with no research on the voter’s decision for a parliamentary candidate hence this research desires to bridge the gaps in the literatures on the discourse on elections and voter’s choice on parliamentary candidateship. This study argues that a number of factors influence the constituents to reach their decision to vote for a candidate to represent their constituency in parliament. The study will focus on the Klottey Korle Constituency in the 2016 parliamentary elections. 1.3 Research Questions. 1. To what extent did voter choice and behavior affect parliamentary election outcomes of the Klottey Korle Constituency in the 2016 parliamentary elections? 2. Why do electorates make such choices and put up such behaviors? 3. What influenced voters choice and behavior in the parliamentary elections in the Klottey Korle Constituency in 2016? 1.4 Research Objective This study seeks to investigate what influenced the voter’s choice of parliamentary candidates in the Klottey Korle Constituency in the 2016 parliamentary elections. Specifically, this study sought to: 1. Establish what voter decision making meant to the electorates of Klottey Korle Constituency and what informed the voter’s decision in the 2016 parliamentary elections. 2. Investigate why those choices were made by the electorates in Klottey Korle Constituency in the 2016 parliamentary. 3. Analyze the implications of such choices on parliamentary election outcomes. 4 1.6 Scope of the Study This study focuses on: i. the 2016 parliamentary elections in Ghana, ii. the voter, the choice of the voter and constituents of the Klottey Korle Constituency, iii. considerations that influences the choice of voters in Klottey Korle Constituency, iv. members of parliament of the Klottey Korle constituency, (past and present) and v. Parliamentary candidates of the Klottey Korle constituency in 2016 parliamentary elections. 1.7 Significance of the Study Elections are very important in any democratic dispensation. However, the choice of voters in parliamentary elections are as significant as that of presidential elections. Thus, the influencing factors of the choice of these electorates must be known, hence this study. 1.8 Chaptarization of the Study The paper will be presented in five (5) chapters. Chapter one will contain the general overview, the background to the study, statement of problem, research objectives, research questions, significance of the study and scope of the study. Chapter two will provide the literature review which comprises of: Introduction, theoretical foundation, review of related and relevance studies, conceptual framework, operational definitions of terms and conclusion. Chapter Three will focus on methods to be used to collect data and the reason for the chosen method. It will also highlight potential limitations I anticipate facing, ethical considerations and how these will be addressed. Chapter four discusses theoretical reflections of considerations that influence voter decisions using the Klottey Korle district as a case study. Chapter five will conclude on the results on the research, state limitations and make recommendations for future research and political parties. 5 CHAPTER 2 LITERATURE REVIEW 2.0 Introduction This chapter reviews the related and relevance literary works conducted by different researchers on the elections and voter’s decision making globally and in Ghana in with the aim of ascertaining the factors that influence voter’s choice of parliamentary candidate in Ghana during the 2016 general elections. It also encompasses the theoretical foundation of this study and analyzes how theories relate to this study could help explain and gain understanding of the research topic. This study also provides the conceptual framework of elections and voter’s choice during elections with specific emphasis on the Klottey Korle Constituency in the Greater Accra Region and what informed the voter’s decision in the 2016 parliamentary elections. In what proceeds, is the discourse on the theoretical foundation, review of the related and relevant literatures as well as the conceptual framework or underpinnings of voter’s choice or decision making during elections around the globe and in Ghana, the implications for the electorates and the development of the constituency. 2.1.0 Theoretical Foundation This work is anchored on following theories and models: 2.1.1 The Public Choice Theory and Voter Choice: Members of Parliament when elected into office hold public offices. Their elections are subject to the choice of the public who make these voting decisions and choices to put them into office. The 6 concept voter decisions and voter choices is often discussed with the Public Choice Theory which was propounded by (James Buchanan and Gordon Tullock) to explain how decisions are made. It involves the interaction of the voting public, the politicians, the bureaucracy and political action committees they assert. Buchanan craftily defined it, public choice is “politics without romance.” The ambitious thoughts displaced postulates that candidates in the political scope desire to uphold the public good. In the conventional “public interest” view, public officials are represented as compassionate “public servants” who truly carry out the “will of the people.” In tending to the public’s business, voters, politicians, and policymakers are supposed somehow to rise above their own parochial concerns. The Public Choice Theory likely to the economic model of rational behavior on which it rests makes the assumption that, electorates are led primarily by their own parochial interest and most importantly the reasons of people in the political process are no different from those in the steak. Voters are compelled to vote or support candidates who they ? think and know will make them personally better off. Public office holders strive to improve their own careers and politicians, or candidates seek election or reelection to occupy public office. It has been acknowledged since the time of the Marquis de Condorcet (1785), voting among three or more candidates or options may result in a failure to select the majority’s most preferred outcome or may be prone to vote “cycles” producing no clear winner. Kenneth Arrow’s “impossibility theorem” shows that “there is no mechanism for making collective choices, other than tyranny, that deciphers the choice of diverse individuals into a well-behaved social utility function. Nor has any electoral rule been found whose results cannot be manipulated either by individuals voting insincerely that is, casting their ballots strategically for less-preferred candidates or issues in order to block even worse outcomes or by an agenda setter who controls the order in which votes are taken.” 7 Arrow’s theory answers a very basic question when it comes to the theory of collective decision making. Say there are some alternatives to choose among. They could be policies, public projects, candidates in an election, distributions of income and labour requirements among the members of a society, or just about anything else and there are some people whose preference will inform this choice. The query is, which procedures are they deriving from? What is known or can be found out about their choices? Is it a collective or “social” ordering of the alternatives from better to worse? Arrow’s theory vehemently argues that, there are no such procedures, none whatsoever that satisfy certain seemingly relatively reasonable assertions regarding the sovereignty of the people and the knowledge of their choices. 2.1.2. Factors that affect Voter Choice and the three models of Voting Behaviour In my earlier discussions, I enumerated some factors that have been studied to affect voter’s behaviours by some researchers and scholars. Those factors include; the performance of the government in power, the personality of the candidates, the voter’s position or knowledge on specific issues, the party affiliation of the candidate, the current state of the economy and the identity thus ethnic background of the candidate. These factors are marked by three schools of thoughts and will be extensively expatiated on in my subsequent discussions. These schools of thoughts are the sociological model of voting behavior which is also referred to as the School of Columbia with the main reference in Applied Bureau of Social Research of Columbia University, whose work began with the publication of the book The People’s Choice (Lazarsfeld, Berelson, & Gaudet, 1944). This focuses on the relationship between the individual who is the voter and his or her social structure. In this theory, voting is placed in a social context where variables such as the area of residence, the social class, the ethnicity and the individual’s 8 religion make the choice of candidate. (Lazarsfeld, Berelson and Gaudet 1944; Harrop and Miller 1987). The second school of thought, the Psychological model of voting behavior which is also termed as the School of Michigan, also has its major reference in the work of scholars Campbell, Converse, Miller and Stokes (1960) where the focus is on voter decisions tied to the voter psychological biases and attitudes such as the party affiliation of the voter, attitude towards candidate and the voter’s position on issues. The third school of thought the Rational-choice approach which is also referred to as the School of Rochester or the model of economic voting (Downs 1957; Olayode 2015) focuses on the voter’s voting behavior as a rational self-interest decision, stemming from the instrumental cost-benefit calculus of the individual voter. 2.1.3 The Sociological Model. This model was developed by scholars of the Columbia Universality namely Felix Lazarsfeld, Bernard Berelson, and Hazel Gaudet. Lazarsfeld. Lazarsfeld et al conducted a research at Ohio State using a questionnaire as a technique of investigation for the first time in the study of the US presidential elections. These scholars interviewed 600 voters in the Erie Country and the participants of this research were interviewed seven times over a seven-month period during the presidential campaign to identify which voters changed their original position during the campaign. The aim of the research conducted was to study the effects of the participant’s exposure to the media to discover how the media factors into voters’ decisions and also to test a new methodology of successive interviews with a panel of subjects and a control group. Lazarsfeld’s initial interest was on the study of the “psychological mechanisms involved in the process of choice under the influence of publicity, advertising and the mass media on consumer behavior.” 9 The results of the study showed that, an individual’s voter choice and behavior is greatly influenced by the cultural and social environments which they find themselves in. The research also revealed that 75 percent of first time voters voted the same way their parents did. Lazarsfeld et al also postulate that the individual’s sociological model places a robust importance and emphasis on external forces particularly the influence voters’ primary groups exert on them in a matter of sentiment and disposition rather than rational choices. (Anderson and Yaish 2003; Thomassen 1994; Heywood 2002) also agree with Lazarsfeld and assert “the fundamental assumption of the sociological model is that one’s voting preference is to a greater extent influenced by individual membership in a particular social group, as well as the economic and social position of the group.” This seeks to explain the conception that, the voter’s social identity becomes an inherent extension of the way they vote for a particular candidate or a political party as they tend to share the same identity concerned with their social class, religion or ethnicity (Andersen and Heath 2003). Social groups make the choice of voting for parties or candidates that position or campaign with message that seek to represent their interest or prioritize their needs as voters (Adjei 2012) asserts. Another assumption of the sociological model is that the family in which voters find themselves in play a key role in their choice of candidates and political parties whom they vote for in an election. The concept of a generational party choice has become prevalent as the family is seen to be a strong agent of social group that influences vote preference. (Sarlamanov and Jovanoski 2014) also agree to this assumption and are of the view that, through political socialization, the political culture, values, and norms of the older generations are passed along to the younger generations. This is to say that, in childhood, most of these political attitudes are formed, and the basic values that determine the political preferences of the voters are learned within the family the voter finds 10 him or herself in. An example to this assertion is the case of the Member of Parliament for the Klottey Korle Constituency Dr. Zanetor Agyeman Rawlings who happens to be the daughter of Jerry John Rawlings, Ghana’s longest serving president and the founder of the National Democratic Congress. The MP for the Klottey Korle Constituency represents the constituency on the ticket of the NDC in parliament. Conclusions can be drawn that, at the early stage of the MP’s life, she was greatly influenced by the father’s political preference and tends to not only vote for the father’s political party but also become a member and representative of the party in the Klottey Korle Constituency in parliament. Just like any theory and model, the sociological model has been critiqued as a result of its stress on social groups and the social environment. Young (2009) in a study found that social cleavages have a more significant impact on voting in Kenya than in Ghana. In this critique, the sociological approach fails to explain why some social cleavages strongly influence attitude and voting behavior in some emerging democracies but not in others. Also, with it’s over emphasis of social determinism, the approach has dismissed the role of the individual voter’s self-interest as well as the effect political parties have in mobilizing voters. One strong assumption of the model is that, the individual voter belongs to one social group when in actual fact the individual voter may belong to quite a number of social groups. In this instance, the individual voter may belong to a political party as a result of his or her social class and another as a result of the individual’s ethnic group or religion. The final critique is that, the model lays emphasis on continuity and stability in electoral preference. In the case of a voter voting for a political party because of the family’s preference to that political party this could be the result of exposure to the belief of a particular political party since childhood. Beliefs and alliances can change when a person exposed to other beliefs. In the case of the Jinapor brothers in Ghana, Abu 11 Jinapor and John Jinapor. Abu Jinapor who is the youngest had been exposed to the NDC and its beliefs by his senior brother John Jinapor but changed his political status to become a member of the New Patriotic Party. Olayode (2015) agrees and asserts that that if vote choice is determined solely by the stable sociological factors, election results would remain unchanged for extended periods of time. Consequently, (Brooks et al 2006) also shares in the view and advances the argument that, in modern times, the correlation between sociological factors and party support has drastically weakened as the theory fails to explain why some members diverge from their group preference and why changes occur in the electoral results over time. 2.1.4 The Psychological Model This model is traced back to 1948 in a survey research conducted by some Scholars at the University of Michigan during the US presidential elections in 1948, 1952 and 1956. The results of this research were published in the book “The American Voter” by Campbell, Converse, Miller and Stokes (1960). This model sought to critique the sociological model as it combines both psychological and sociological factors to explain the voter’s preference. Campbell et al (2010) highlighted the view in critiquing the sociological model that, membership in a social group has little direct impact on an electorates voter decision as asserted by Lazarsfeld et al. The theme of this model of voting behavior is partisanship which is aimed as a psychological attraction. A stable and lasting relationship with a political party does not necessarily translate into a concrete link namely registration, or consistently voting and systematic militancy with this party: “In characterizing the relation of individual to party as a psychological identification we invoke a concept that has played an important if somewhat varied role in psychological theories of the 12 relation of individual to individual or of individual to group. We use the concept here to characterize the individual’s affective orientation to an important group-object in his environment. Both reference group theory and small-group studies of influence have converged upon the attracting or repelling quality of the group as the generalized dimension most critical in defining the individual-group relationship, and it is this dimension that we will call identification” (Campbell, Converse, Miller, & Stokes, 1960, p. 121). The concept of partisanship, by Campbell et al. (1960), came as a result of the reference group (Hyman & Singer, 1968) and is similar to the concept of anticipatory socialization introduced by Merton and Kitt (1950) to explain the circumstances in which individuals make choices of a reference group to which they want to belong to and act in accordance with what they identify as the rules of the group. Miller and Sharks (1996) are of the view that, an individual obtains partisanship through a socialization process which is influenced by the beliefs and principles of the family, colleagues and peers. “Partisanship is a genuine form of social identification in which individuals have a long-term sense of what sorts of people belong to various parties and whether they identify with these social groups” (Green, Palmquist, & Schickler, 2002) Within the psychological framework, three themes are identified; political parties, political issues and political candidates which the voter identifies, assess and responds to. (Verburg 1979). This model places priority and lays emphasis on partisanship as the key determinant of the individuals voting behavior. Campbell et al (1960) define partisanship as “as the continuing psychological affinity and attachment people have for a particular political party”. In their definition, they describe the voter as a “die hard” fan of a political party. Heywood (2002) also agrees with this definition and also describes the partisan voter as a loyal, long-term supporter who strongly identifies with a political party. Individuals who are “die hard” fans of political parties are very 13 difficult to be influenced to vote for another party. Accordingly, Jowell and Cottice (1985) also share their views on partisanship and advance the discussion on partisanship that “Partisans will remain attached to their preferred party even if they have moved out of line with them on a major political principle”. The choice of the voter in an election does not change easily and hence during elections, voter choice becomes a mere manifestation of a long-standing predisposition towards a particular party. Nonetheless, voters’ political affinities may shift depending on the issues and candidates involved in a specific election according to Campbell (1964). Aside from partisanship, issue orientation and candidate position are the other two motivational factors that affect voters’ decisions under this model. Issue orientation refers to individuals’ perspectives and positions on issues, as well as the extent to which voters’ preferences or dislikes for certain policies influences their vote. For example, a voter concerned about educational policies will vote for the party or candidate that most closely represents his or her stance and messages on the issue. On the other hand, candidate orientation refers to the interest of voters in the personalities of the candidates. It also includes any perceptions the voter has of the candidate, such as likeability. According to this approach, voters are also influenced by the personal characteristics of the leader such as demeanor, style, and intelligence (Rabinowitz and Macdonald 1989; Carmines and Stimson 1980; Bartels 2002; Lawrence 1978). Voters are mostly concerned with a candidate’s traits and the candidate’s ability to deliver when given the mandate (Lawrence 1978). This means, voters are likely to make their voter choice based on the candidate who has the capacity to deliver on their promises, most importantly, when all the candidates contesting have similar standpoints on contentious issues. Moreover, some scholars also link the voter’s attraction of a candidate to their political parties or issue positions. These scholars assert that, people make voter choices not on candidate’s traits but rather the candidate’s position on issues or party affiliation. This suggests 14 that people’s partisanship influences their evaluations of candidates and electoral issues (Campbell, Converse, Miller, and Stokes 1960). The weakness of this perception rests in its short- sighted conclusion that people vote for parties they like and against those they do not. Further, it does not automatically explain why voters choose one party over the other rather it indicates that voter choice is primarily based on party loyalty and not on evaluations of the candidate’s capacity to deliver while in office (Lawrence 1978). The way the psychological model perceives the relationship between psychosocial factors and partisanship has been challenged by some scholars and researchers who believe that the psychological model overemphasizes the role of long term partisan loyalties. (Dalton, Flanagan, & Beck, 1984; Dalton, 2000, Fiorina 1981; Franklin, Mackie & Valen, 1992; Kiewiet, 1983; Wattenberg, 1994). 2.1.5. Rational Choice Model. This model of voting behavior is traced to Anthony Downs’ book, An Economic Theory of Democracy, published in 1957. This model seeks to paint the picture of an economic view of voter choice. Antunes (2010) asserts that, the behavior of voters in elections is synonymous to the behavior of consumers in the economic market. Voters in this model make their choices among available policy options that are presented to them by candidates as they behave like rational economic actors unlike the sociological and psychological models where voting is seen as an instrumental rather than habitual act. Downs (1957) propounds that rational voter will behave in the following five ways; The individual is always able to make a decision when presented with alternatives. He or she is able to rank his or her preferences, in the highest preferred order. 15 The individuals’ preference is transitive, meaning the voter will prefer alternative 1 to 2, and 2 to 3, in that order. The individual will always choose the most preferred alternative, which is the highest ranked alternative in the preference ordering. The individual will always make the same decision whenever presented with the same alternatives under the same circumstances. The basic assumption of this model is that voting is a conscious act where voters critically weigh options and the advantages and disadvantages of the options that are available to them when deciding who to vote for. Voters here tend to place their interest first and look out for what they stand to gain when they vote those political parties or candidates into office. These voters look out for policies that suit their needs and their interest and voter choices vary from one election to another. (Catt 1996; Andersen and Heath 2000; Downs 1957). Opposing to the other two models where voters make choices on social environment and party affiliations, this model focuses on the voter’s freedom of choice. It essentially posits that the voter engages in a rationally purposeful behavior when exercising choice in elections (Oppenheimer 2008). What this seeks to mean is that, the voter makes a decision to vote only if he or she stands to gain from the party or candidate and does not vote if he or she does not gain from the political party or candidate. In a case of this a voter may show interest in educational policies in one election and cast vote for the candidate whose policies best suits him or her. The voter’s choice can change in the following elections as the voter may be interested in health policies and may vote for another candidate who has policies on health. The voting choice of rational voters is not static as they vary from one election to another and rational voting has effects on the outcomes of election results. 16 2.2.0 Review of Related and Relevant Empirical Literatures This section highlights the theoretical review of related and relevance studies, and conceptual framework in order to establish the knowledge gaps and also to place this study in proper and better context for clarity and comprehensibility. The review is therefore thematized as follows: 2.2.1. Parliament of Ghana Ghana’s parliamentary history can be traced as far back as 1850 where the then Gold Coast, was given its own legislative council to advise the colonial governor on enacting legislation mainly in the form of Ordinances "for the peace, order and good government of the subject." The governor exercised all legislative and executive powers. However, nine legislative council officials were nominated six of whom were Africans as opposed to eleven officials and the governor. This Guggisberg constitution in 1925 held the first legislative council elections ever and completely retained control of the legislation. The Guggisberg constitution was substituted under the 1946 Bums constitution and a chunk of the people came together and formed representatives in the legislative council. An unofficial member was given the mandate to become President of the Legislative council after the then governor had retired his office as an ex-officio President. Fast-forward to 1951, seventy-five members were elected to the Legislative Assembly. Out of the 75, a total of nine members were chosen, three as ex-officio members and six special members representing commercial and mining benefits. An Assembly of a Speaker was given by the 1957 transitional Constitution and 104 members were elected on party lines on the grounds of universal adult suffrage. 17 Later in 1957 when Ghana had full political Independence, the Constitution was updated and shaped after the Westminster model. Ten women were appointed to occupy special vacancies made by the National Assembly to give them some of exposure to parliamentary life. However, the system was a temporary system of election and the Act did not cover any filling of vacancy caused by death, resignation or dismissal of a woman member. In the second month of 1964, Ghana adopted a one-party system of government after it had become a self-governing unitary Republic on 1st July 1960. Ghana’s Fourth Republic’s parliament in 1992 began with 200 Members of Parliament with a representation of one hundred and eighty-nine (189) members from the ruling National Democratic Congress (NDC), eight (8) members from the National Convention Party (NCP), two (2) independent candidates and one (1) from party of Every Ghanaian Living Everywhere (EGLE). In 1996, a total of 200 Members of Parliamentarians were again elected with a representation of 131 Members from the NDC, 63 from the NPP, 5 from the PCP and one from the PNC. In the year 2000, the tables turned and there was the dawn of a new era, the New Patriotic Party (NPP) took over parliament with a majority representation of 100 members, 92 from the National Democratic Congress, 3 from the People’s National Convention (PNC) 1 from the Convention People’s Party (CPP) and 4 independent candidates. However, in 2004, the seats of Members of Parliament increased with the creation of additional 30 constituencies to the already existing 200 constituencies. The ruling New Patriotic Party increased its membership and seats in Parliament to 128 members with only two additions to that of the opposition National Democratic Congress in the previous election year 2000. They were represented by 94 party members in parliament that year. The People’s National Convention also 18 increased its membership in parliament to 4 and the Conventions People’s Party increased to 3. Only 1 independent candidate was represented in parliament that year. The change of government and political party in the 2008 general elections had an impact on the representatives of members of parliament that year with a majority of 116 members from the National Democratic Congress, 107 members from the New Patriotic Party, 4 Independent Candidates, 2 from the People’s National Convention and 1 from the Convention People’s Party. Again in the 2012 general elections, 45 new constituencies were created in addition to the already existing 230 constituencies to give a total of 275 constituencies and members of parliament. The ruling National Democratic Congress gained majority of the seats with a 148 member representation in parliament, 121 members from the New Patriotic Party 4 Independent members and 1 from both Convention People’s Party and People’s National Convention. Currently, Ghana’s 7th Parliament of the Fourth Republic is represented by 275 parliamentarians with a majority of 169 from the ruling New Patriotic Party and 106 from the National Democratic Congress. This implies that, our current parliament is dominated by the two major political parties in Ghana. 2.2.2. Klottey Korle Constituency Elections The Klottey Korle Constituency is situated in the Greater Accra region of Ghana precisely in the Korle Klottey Municipal Assembly. The constituency is populated with about 120,000 people with about 85,000 registered voters in 2016. It is one of the constituencies represented in the parliament of Ghana. It elects one Member of Parliament (MP) by the first past-the-post system. Its current Member of Parliament for the constituency is Dr. Zanetor Agyeman Rawlings, the 19 daughter of the longest serving president of Ghana Jerry John Rawlings. The constituency is surrounded by communities like Osu, Ridge, Adabraka, and Asylum Down. The composition of the voters in the Klottey Korle Constituency is made up of both the “elites” and “non elites” (illiterates). The Constituency was first represented in parliament in 1992. The EGLE party won the parliamentary elections and the constituency was represented by Nathan Tetteh Mensah in that year. After that term, the two dominant political parties have taken turns to represent the Klottey Korle Constituency since 1996. The National Democratic Congress (N.D.C.) having represented the Klottey Korle Constituency four turns in 1996, 2008, 2012 and 2016 and the New Patriotic Party two turns in 2000 and 2004. In 1996, the Klottey Korle Constituency was represented in parliament by the N.D.C’s David Lamptey who managed to garner 26.2% votes from the electorates of the Klottey Korle Constituency. As a result of the change of government in the 2000 presidential elections, the Klottey Korle Constituency also changed its representative in parliament and voted Nii Adu Daku Mante, a candidate of the New Patriotic Party (N.P.P.). He became the first and only Member of Parliament of the Klottey Korle Constituency to represent the Klottey Korle Constituency on the ticket of the NPP in parliament and served under the John Agyekum Kuffour government for two terms thus 2000 to 2008. Subsequently, the tables turned in favor of the N.D.C. government under the administration of the late John Evans Atta-Mills and Nii Armah Ashietey secured a seat as a Member of Parliament in 2008 and served for two terms thus 2008 to 2012 and 2012 to 2016 until Dr. Zanetor Agyeman Rawlings won the NDC’s ticket in 2016 and won the Klottey Korle Constituency’s parliamentary 20 elections to become the first female Member of Parliament for the constituency. She presently represents the constituency under the leadership of Nana Akuffo Addo. In a careful analysis of the Klottey Korle constituency’s representative in parliament, we can clearly draw that the constituency since 1992 has been represented by “Gas”. One because it is surrounded by electorates who are Ga speaking people and tend to vote for their own. Delegates of the two dominant political parties whose parties have represented the Klottey Korle constituency in parliament since 1996 towed a different tangent by having candidates who were not ‘Gas’; Dr. Zanetor Rawlings of the N.D.C. is a Voltarian and Lawyer Philp Addison of the N.P.P. an Akuapem contested the parliamentary elections for the constituency in 2016. 2.2.3. Voter Choice and Voter Behaviour Bratton (2013) defined voting behavior as a set of related personal and electoral actions which may include participation in electoral campaigns, voter turnout, and choosing whom to vote. Rules (2014) also asserts that, voting behavior encompasses both the actions and inactions of people regarding electoral participation, as well as for whom to support if one decides to engage in the voting process. The study of the concept voter choice and behavior by many researchers including Brobbey (2009) tends to investigate what influences the voter’s choice of candidate and political parties in an election in Ghana. The assertion that voters make electoral choices in vacuum is flawed, as studies have shown and proven that voters make electoral choices based on the voter’s personal experiences and other multiple factors (Brobbey, 2009). A study by Brobbey (2009) on voter’s behaviour in perspective focusing on Ghana and a study by Prysby and Scavo (1993) revealed that, voters determine their choice of candidate based on these 21 considerations; the performance of the government in power, the personality of the candidates, the voters position or knowledge on specific issues, the party affiliation of the candidate, the current state of the economy and the identity/ethnic background of the candidate. These influential factors are shaped by short term influences which are specific to a particular election and differ from election to elections some of which include the candidates’ personality, the performance of the government in power and the current state of the company (Heywood 2002). The media is a powerful tool, and aside its duty and function to inform, educate and entertain, the media has increasingly and importantly grown to be a voter choice and behavior influencer, influencing electoral outcomes. (Ball and Peters 2005). As a result of the advent of technology and new media, social media has become a tool for political parties and politicians to convey their political messages to the electorates. (Popkin 1991) shares the view that, the media plays a crucial role in making information readily available to the voters upon which they base their voting decisions. Kurtzleben (2017); Gunther, Beck and Nisbet (2018) on the other hand argue that the media has also become a channel for spreading biased and fake news which tend to negatively affect the voting behaviours of electorates and affect electoral outcomes. The long-term influences such as party loyalty and affiliation on the other hand are usually more stable in the long run. The voting systems make room for the choice of candidates that are elected by the electorates. At the lowest level, some non-democratic countries will often conduct ‘elections’ with just one candidate. In democratic dispensations, voter choice often means voters choose individual candidates, or simply vote for parties. With the voting system of ‘Closed List’ versions of Party List Proportional Representation, voters are compelled to vote for a list of candidates chosen by their party of preference. 22 2.3.0 Operational Definitions of Terms Political Campaign: Political Campaign is a communication strategy adopted by politicians to reach larger audiences. For example, the electorates may be students and politicians can adopt the use of social media platforms such as Facebook and Twitter to send messages to the electorate. Political Message: Political message refers to ideas, policies and values communicated by political actors to persuade electorate in order solicit for vote. Election: An election is a conventional group decision-making process by which a population chooses an individual or group of people to hold public office. The 2016 General Election of Ghana saw Political actors using social media platforms such as Facebook and Twitter to reach their audience which included students. Electorate: Electorate means people who are eligible to vote in an election. This includes students who meet voter eligibility requirements. This means that they have met all the constitutional rights and are eligible to exercise their franchise. Voting: Voting decision pertains to a conclusion or resolution reached after consideration that enables an individual to make a choice of a particular candidate or party in an election. Influence: Influence means the impact or effect that a person or thing be it political actors, political messages or social media platforms has on person’s decisions, opinions, or behaviour on the way something happens. Politician: An individual engaged in the activity of politics 23 2.4. The Importance of the Study. This study will enhance the current discourse on voter choice and behaviour and its effects it has on elections outcomes. It will also add to the scarce literature on political campaigns in Ghana. Again, research on voter’s choice and behaviour is significant because political parties and other stakeholders are interested in finding more interactive means to engage the electorates, the appropriate mediums to use and how to get them in their numbers to vote for them. This is especially useful given the development of the practice of social distancing in wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. The findings will also be useful to scholars and students especially those who have an interest in politics, political messages, parliamentary elections, voter’s choice and behaviour and the factors that influence voters choice and behaviour. 2.5. Conclusion. The related works highlight the various arguments made by scholars and researchers on the voter’s choice or decision making and the implications of such electorates voting decisions on the electorates and the development of the constituency. It also revealed the new twist in voter’s decision making, and how politicians must craft their messages to the voters to make choices of them and capture the attention of electorates and influence their voting decisions. However, most of the related work failed to explore the efficacy of political messages on social media thus Facebook and twitter and its effects on voting decisions of electorates. . 24 CHAPTER 3 METHODOLOGY This chapter primarily will focus on the systematic body of methods or procedures that will be utilized by the researcher in achieving the objectives of the study. The research methodology will comprise of research design, philosophical paradigm, target population, sampling technique and sample size, sources of data collection, data collection instrument and procedure, technique of data analysis and limitations and delimitations. In this study, a qualitative and quantitative research method will mainly be used in the data gathering process. In this chapter, focus will be on the description of research method that will be used in gathering information from the study areas. The description will be on research philosophy, research design, and research population, sampling method, data collection techniques made up of both secondary and primary source, data analysis, scope, limitations and significance of the study. The methodology in any research gives sufficient information for an investigator to make estimate of the reliability and validity of the methods. 3.1 Methods This study will deploy the descriptive and analytic research methods, Qualitative method will be used in gathering information from the study areas. The description will be on research philosophy, research design, and research population, sampling method, data collection techniques made up of both secondary and primary source, data analysis, scope, limitations and significance of the study. The methodology in any research gives sufficient information for an investigator to make estimate of the reliability and validity of the methods used. 25 This study will employ both quantitative and qualitative methods of research to establish a relationship between the voter’s behavior and choice of parliamentary candidates in the 2016 general elections. The methods used will also establish what influenced their choice of candidates as electorates and constituents. It will sample the views of electorates in Klottey Korle Constituency in Accra. In gathering preliminary information for the research, significant literatures have been reviewed which includes published books, articles, thesis, journals and reports in areas of parliamentary elections, voter choice, voter behavior and factors that influence voters’ choice and behavior. Creswell (2013) and Silverman (2005) agree to the combination of techniques and suggest that researchers have to abandon the spurious choice between qualitative and quantitative methods, and instead make use of the most valued features of each. The mixed method will be used in this study help to do away with the inadequacies inherent in using only one method. Also, the mixed approach offers the opportunity and space to access more of the required information than a single approach will provide. The qualitative data will be obtained from secondary sources and is mainly descriptive. They will include the electoral results published by the Electoral Commission of Ghana in 2016, as well as other relevant publications that I may deem fit to aid this work. The quantitative analysis will be based on primary data that I will obtain from a survey of registered voters in the Klottey Korley Constituency which is also my target population. The survey questionnaires will be administered to 1000 respondents because according to the Central Limit Theorem, “given a sufficiently large sample size from a population with a finite level of variance, the mean of all samples from the same population would be approximately equal to the mean of the population” The sampling technique that will be used is the non-probability sampling technique. Purposive and convenience sampling techniques will used. According to Laerd (2012) dissertation usually 26 requires sampling techniques with which researchers deploy in selecting respondents from a given population that they are interested in studying. Collectively, this unit form the sample that the research will study. 3.2 Research Process 3.2.1 Research Philosophy From the research process, the study adopts the research philosophy of realism. Saunders et al. (2003, p. 84) explains the philosophy of realism as “the belief that a reality exists, that is independent of human thoughts and beliefs. They indicate that a large scale of social forces and processes exist, and these do affect people. However, people are not necessarily aware of the existence of such influences on their interpretations and behaviors (Saunders Ct al., 2003, p.84). Adopting a realist philosophy, the approach from which the research was conducted was determined. 3.3 Interview Schedules. By interviewing electorates at the Klottey Korle Constituency will make the study satisfy some of the basic demands of this study. The selection of the interviewees will be based on purposive sampling, which requires the choice of sample to be based on certain criteria (Tashakkori & Teddlie, 2003). The criterion in this study will be that, the participants must be electorates of that constituency who voted in the 2016 parliamentary elections as their responses will be used to expand and explain the survey results. Interview is the most widely employed method in qualitative research because allows a thorough examination of experiences, feelings or opinions (Barbour & Schostak 2005). 27 These interviews will take a semi structured format because the opinions of the informant will be important to this research. Semi structured interviews allow for flexibility and convenience. (Bell & Emory 2011). As a data collection method, interviews are one of the most significant sources for use in obtaining case study information. Specifically, the interview method will allow the researcher to focus directly on the case study topic. Additionally, interviews will be insightful in that they will give perceived causal conclusions (Yin, 1994). The purpose of a focused interview is to confirm certain facts that are already known to the researcher, following questionnaires administration and literature review. Interviews will take a form of an open-ended discussion in which the selected informants will be encouraged to air their views on the problem or issue that is under investigation (Cutlip et al 1999). Yin (1994) agrees that this allows the interview to stimulate a discussion. Responses from interviews will be recorded under headings emerging from survey objectives. The interviews will take the shape of a one-on- one, face-to-face interaction because it will build a degree of intimacy; thereby facilitating disclosure (Johnson, 2002). These will be chosen as the aim was to elicit a rich experiential account from the interviewees that could provide depth and details about the topics which will require further investigation (Johnson, 2002). The interviews will follow a semi-structured pattern, whereby an outline of the topics will be covered, created and each topic will be introduced with an open question. This helps guide the flow of the interviews. 3.4 Data analysis and presentation This study will use both qualitative and quantitative analysis. The data collected will analyzed as per objectives and themes, and then concluded. Data will be cleansed before the analysis and therefore, any ambiguous answer will be left out. The analyzed results will be tabulated 28 appropriately using graphs, charts, and simple percentages to illustrate the responses to the questionnaires and interviews. 3.5. Ethical Consideration Participants in this study will remain anonymous and no identification information will be gathered hence ensuring confidentiality. Further, the act of participation will be completely voluntary and there will be no actual benefits attached. The topic remains a dicey one. Nonetheless, participants will be at liberty to skip any question they may deem uncomfortable or worth not answering. 3.6 Limitations This study was faced with limitations. There were constraints with time and money as some books to be reviewed were purchased and the ones that couldn’t be purchased which however contained relevant information were missed out. The time used for the research was a little inadequate considering that there had to be a balance with other academic works. As a result of the COVID- 19 pandemic and my illness for months, this study was unable to collect data from respondents in the Klottey Korle constituency. 29 CHAPTER 4 THEORETICAL REFLECTIONS OF FACTORS THAT INFLUENCE GHANAIANS PARLIAMENTARY VOTER CHOICE AND BEHAVIOR IN GHANA USING ELECTORATES IN THE KLOTTEY KORLE CONSTITUENCY IN THE 2016 PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS AS A CASE STUDY 4.0. Introduction. This chapter provides theoretical reflection of the factors that account for Ghanaians parliamentary voter choice and behaviour in Ghana focusing on the Klottey Korle Constituency in the 2016 parliamentary elections. 4.1. Discussions and Reflection Chapter two of this study enumerated some factors that have been studied to affect voter’s behaviours by some researchers and scholars. Those factors include; the performance of the government in power, the personality of the candidates, the voters position or knowledge on specific issues, the party affiliation of the candidate, the current state of the economy and the identity thus ethnic background of the candidate. This study observes and anticipates that the Klottey Korle Constituency parliamentary elections will reflect the instances captured in the discussions. It posits therefore that those factors are marked by three schools of thoughts which has extensively been highlighted in the previous discussions. Theoretical reflection points to the fact that the sociological model of voting behavior which is also referred to as the School of Columbia with the main reference in Applied Bureau of Social Research of Columbia University (Lazarsfeld, Berelson, & Gaudet, 1944) underpins voter’s choice 30 or decision in elections and that other factors also play significant role. The present study focuses on the relationship between the individual who is the voter and his or her social structure. In this theory, voting is placed in a social context where variables such as the area of residence, the social class, the ethnicity and the individual’s religion have on the choice of candidate. (Lazarsfeld, Berelson and Gaudet 1944; Harrop and Miller 1987). The second school of thought, the Psychological model of voting behavior also termed as the School of Michigan with major reference in the work of scholars such as Campbell, Converse, Miller and Stokes (1960) focus on voting decisions that are tied to the voters psychological biases and attitudes such as the party affiliation of the voter, attitude towards candidate and the voters position on issues. The third school of thought the Rational-choice approach also referred to as the School of Rochester or the model of economic voting (Downs 1957; Olayode 2015) focuses on the voters voting behavior as a rational self-interest decision, stemming from the instrumental cost-benefit calculus of the individual voter. 4.2. Conclusion Finally, this study concludes that the voter makes a decision to vote only if he or she stands to gain from the party or candidate and does not vote if he or she doesn’t gain from the political party or candidate. In a case of this a voter may show interest in educational policies in one election and cast vote for the candidate whose policies best fits him or her. The voter’s choice as change in the next elections as the voter may be interested in health policies and may vote for another candidate who has policies on health. The voting choice of rational voters is not static as they vary from one election to another and rational voting has effects on the outcomes of election results. 31 CHAPTER 5 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 5.0 Conclusions This paper focused on the factors that influence the voter’s behavior and their choice of candidate or political parties. It established that, voters are influenced by three models namely the Sociological model, the Psychological model and the Rational Choice Model. 5.1 Recommendations This study highly recommends that parliamentary candidates contesting the 2020 elections in the Klottey Korle Constituency should read this paper to enable them have a fair idea of the kind of electorates they are likely to find in their constituencies, also future researches should collect primary data and finally, This research also encourages future researchers to deduce their own research models that could be suitable in finding strategic solution to their research problems. 32 BIBLIOGRAPHY Alvarez R.M, Nagler, J. (1995) Economics, issues and the Petrot candidacy: voter choice in the 1992 presidential election, American Journal of Political Science, P 714-744. Anebo, Felix. (2001). The Ghana 2000 Elections: Voter Choice and Electoral Decisions. 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